Libya: The emergence of a new democracy

With the triumph over Gaddafi, and the universal legitimation – both nationally and internationally – of the National Transitional Council (NTC), the road seems clear for a new, democratic Libya to emerge. However, a popular revolution may be one thing; nation-building is another thing entirely. An issue that can even err the most advanced Western nations, Libya’s tentative first steps into political maturity will be uncertain indeed. This is not only explained by recent turmoil, but by the fact that Libya has only matured as a country recently, let alone as an embryonic democracy.

The concept of ‘Libya’ is a modern one. Split into various tribe-lands, coastal strongholds and inhospitable deserts, this land passed into ownership, piecemeal, to the Romans, Greeks, Arabs and Turks. Only in 1934 was this divided land amalgamated into the borders of modern Libya, following its conquest by the Italians in 1912. Politics was primitive; power usually residing in a foreign ruler, or in a local clique of military cadres or tribal elites. Intervention against any popular uprising could be brutal, as when the Fascist dictator Benito Mussolini crushed the nationalist insurrection of Omar Mukhtar, and in the process - directly and indirectly - killed half of the native Bedouin population.

An independent Libya emerged in 1951. Finally, Libya became a democracy, albeit one heavily constrained by the power of the monarchy. The King, Idris, controlled the armed forces, the cabinet and the legislative veto for instance.

But in 1969, one young officer, disgusted by the corruption and malfeasance he perceived in the King’s government, led a coup d’etat, establishing his own dictatorship. This young officer was to rule Libya for the next 42 years: Colonel Gaddafi. Stripping aside all previous representative institutions, he established his own system of ‘Jamahirya’; the mendaciously named ‘State of the Masses’. However, the people had no say in politics, with dissidents often publically executed, some on state television.

In 2011, his government was torn down. In a vein of continuity, rebels waved the old tricolour of the Kingdom of Libya, hoping to establish Libya’s first true democracy. Despite the clear unsavouriness of Gaddafi’s death by the hands of the mob, it was also fitting to an extent – Libya’s last dictator, Mussolini, died in a similar way.

The NTC still have much to do in order to create a new Libya however; one truly modern and united. The remnants of Gaddafi’s loyalists will be quickly swept away, but the issues of reducing inter-tribal tensions, the creation of a state based on the rule of law, reconstruction and the establishment of an elected parliament remain.

Reconstruction should be fairly straight forward; not only are there Libya’s vast oil reserves to draw on, but many nations have pledged foreign aid. While there was be short term socioeconomic suffering, the long term is likely to see a recovery in Libya – both in its economy, and its rebuilding from the costs of war. Of course, this is assuming the spiralling cost of oil (almost a given, despite the global economic downturn) and assuming the good word of the West (less so).

The creation of a modern, constitutional state seems near-certain as well. The National Transitional Council published its Constitutional Declaration on August 3, setting out its rules clearly. Elections are expected next year, in April, with the official Constitution to be promulgated the following year.

Reducing inter-tribal tensions, and indeed inter-group tensions generally, seems to be a problem less likely to be sorted quickly, and possibly needing a more subtle and long term approach. Inter-tribal tension has always been an issue in Libya; after all, it was only united as a coherent whole recently. In the recent upheaval, it is inevitable that such tensions are flared. There are 140 tribes in Libya, but only 30 openly and ubiquitously fought against Gaddafi during his rule. While it is a fact that hundreds of thousands of Libyans welcome the end of all things Gaddafi, some do not. Regional differences, such as between Tripolitanians and Benghazians, are particularly strong. These differences may flare from smouldering embers into an inferno of civil war, if political and social tumults take a drastic turn for the worse. 

However, such feelings are countered somewhat by the buoyant hope for a new, prosperous era. This is especially felt by the urban and educated young. The use of the Internet and social networking to promote the cause of a unified, democratic Libya is indicative of this, and not only can it serve to channel and organise domestic support, but it channels explicit support internationally. Libya’s uprising was a story played on an international scale, and so the political will for success was both varied and unyielding. Its longevity is another debate altogether.

These issues are problematic for any country, particularly for Libya’s fledgling democracy. It will have to learn fast, and learn from the trials and tribulations of the past, to mature. It may not have an exact blueprint for Libyan democracy, but it has a chance to set historical wrongs right. The NTC is taking the right route, with a cautious, moderate mix of Sharia Law and Secular Democracy – a compound likely to be the correct compromise. It must be both subtle and striking, considerate and cutting – only with decisiveness, intelligence and luck, will Libya be transformed into the state it could so patently be.